current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -1.6021 True
delta_h2 4.2731 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 1.2606 True
price 0.8884 True
risk 0.0 False
-- 
number of parameters:  10
number of free parameters:  4
current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0972 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.3041 False
psi 0.1689 False
delta_h1 -1.6021 True
delta_h2 4.2731 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 1.2606 True
price 0.8884 True
risk 0.0 False
- using these moments:
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.002163203147451219
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.0035252540804465537
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.049239470940642106
grad2 1.0820892101034927 0.03087038218890085
grad3 1.082147568412408 0.03145186878606061
grad4 1.1013762404780216 0.02868160218733265
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.005912598471688923
f =  20.404241391905302 , pars =  [-1.60208775  4.27307979  1.26059212  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08943739105352708
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612115483931
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.43428303000978563
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0144472848310317
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0252263375071995
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.035145548476319
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8931517500947013
f =  46.264499042149225 , pars =  [-1.50208775  4.27307979  1.26059212  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08293651887841996
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612115483925
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4787294964815084
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0132700619960509
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0222391435940394
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.029821090847611
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9158588412932437
f =  61.412141984376355 , pars =  [-1.60208775  4.37307979  1.26059212  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.07845357167042999
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9873876626468993
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4593549864343525
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.011052607251837
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0195377172679794
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0275954050171068
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9106601284727853
f =  496.6499917308092 , pars =  [-1.60208775  4.27307979  1.36059212  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.07371536549857727
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612115483925
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.6331372408547237
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.009592135609038
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0148841003775437
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0179255323685863
tfp 0.8982050373873612 1.0135839339541117
f =  50.95084446872106 , pars =  [-1.60208775  4.27307979  1.26059212  0.9884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08927364212493423
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612115483935
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.5382159655309506
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0120002917224031
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0179814194249484
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0228987381104628
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9219136210761729
f =  36.29325367533677 , pars =  [-1.70208775  4.27307979  1.26059212  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.0894899059714042
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.986061211548392
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.43278058792280477
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0132275569703915
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0235798776378269
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0336287839545886
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9219554932797929
f =  35.73710335855375 , pars =  [-1.60208775  4.17307979  1.26059212  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.09355070966242406
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9845952563700736
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.48936593900077013
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.012833681386199
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0222062169988015
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0304590927623707
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9162783078384137
f =  188.50544044177445 , pars =  [-1.60208775  4.27307979  1.16059212  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.09842990505922022
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612115483929
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.356993302008254
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0137606958971603
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0251058349064084
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.037625768012588
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8235687563653246
f =  74.17471477711965 , pars =  [-1.60208775  4.27307979  1.26059212  0.7884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.07628514956618605
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612115483919
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.518081437869108
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0127487064013647
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.022104246762087
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0283722117844971
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9015747505164661
f =  20.850752644609052 , pars =  [-1.61290675  4.24979044  1.23668073  0.90204698]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.09000620455864525
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9857327765260909
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4543712737261014
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0147769430736628
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.025441268638506
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.034238300751027
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8966771829807829
f =  21.840736409312456 , pars =  [-1.59237345  4.27307979  1.25821886  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.087966699865187
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612115483938
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.44315777039029713
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.014348965480671
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0250185050745746
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0344024102938416
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9004550639972384
f =  23.172078813056235 , pars =  [-1.61668865  4.26755837  1.2514142   0.89354636]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08908529772010593
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9859840367857042
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4349584869166042
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0141521657829882
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0246688362313368
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0344991570763002
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9086310181735677
f =  20.39310778465247 , pars =  [-1.60264019  4.28259561  1.25756822  0.8884092 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08815655122624684
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9861932214553795
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.42428863883208934
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.014317716124998
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.025507744048957
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.035910769672246
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.901840894899678
f =  20.600567889248612 , pars =  [-1.60195513  4.27399591  1.25628828  0.89330181]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08868868214476726
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860739753503637
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4372656474689574
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.014730566488362
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0254851673318117
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0349712333447474
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9011178992936284
f =  25.410165566283872 , pars =  [-1.60349019  4.2913463   1.2576232   0.89317364]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08667870648122614
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9863135131868397
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4471468504397614
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0139008489089154
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0238381788843114
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0326395067746246
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.90360396335539
f =  22.66521442319503 , pars =  [-1.60322956  4.28011064  1.25641229  0.87881017]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08704522515090153
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9861588693285582
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4327311585682816
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0142304590612619
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0251001396405512
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0349661004604107
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9023268829362632
f =  25.143921130093066 , pars =  [-1.60289354  4.28341065  1.24761338  0.8888247 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08689596090720396
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9862044699897354
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4588437957061777
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.014050834457382
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0240990690481793
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0325552610659732
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8965797659882494
f =  27.64732216615702 , pars =  [-1.59675694  4.28728896  1.26206539  0.88359929]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08590129837114768
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9862578697415738
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4478098674061325
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0137820042590668
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.023594566273961
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0326659118683081
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9056626584823317
f =  22.907201964431614 , pars =  [-1.61225666  4.28086977  1.25553602  0.88905351]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08768403588597369
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9861693726715954
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.441860030444162
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0140057326173382
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0245445858016378
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0339042085750632
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9030783226910131
f =  19.59109731588769 , pars =  [-1.60106816  4.27318355  1.25517584  0.88661523]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08894389290951565
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860626577186927
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.42638533932355627
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0140618786974958
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.025039372799131
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.035251725418886
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8998661582645371
f =  22.49240888416946 , pars =  [-1.60141182  4.27564317  1.25658518  0.88781996]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08770539206981605
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860968961472866
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.44395555555438754
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0143273940627724
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0248525434270204
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0340793312340921
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9015102421815538
f =  23.959674822726903 , pars =  [-1.60206541  4.27319882  1.2551036   0.88662093]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08745743379892659
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860628706380368
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.44525396804821465
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.014294746967703
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.024811870065759
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0340484095255082
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9051359950651106
f =  22.03538244583739 , pars =  [-1.59969008  4.2725141   1.25508333  0.88640185]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08794314557375378
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860533242839208
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.44442300107539423
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0143527357487878
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0249964649300143
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0343763845528062
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9009513767677199
f =  23.740764369490694 , pars =  [-1.60103184  4.27363257  1.25429507  0.88676122]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08750503828471376
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860689144476293
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.45285702108995324
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0140717382137165
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.024123730556372
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.032996120199328
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9014652495179537
f =  21.41869773642073 , pars =  [-1.60054746  4.27344701  1.25598136  0.88671815]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08823522817968381
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860663292150023
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4390220856128499
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.014032860878052
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0244818437262004
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.034094257067169
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9005877293486465
f =  21.946864512938923 , pars =  [-1.60109954  4.27352979  1.25518566  0.88567766]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08813099805131762
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860674825642376
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4426615944001281
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.013716165772918
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0239644894051676
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.033442404697571
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.900012907994891
f =  24.27494650436279 , pars =  [-1.60109096  4.27219059  1.25522029  0.88672266]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08752192568625199
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860488116722667
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.45551747646287877
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.013809623390145
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.023680251733759
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0323997852981837
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9022225541701383
f =  23.85059399755238 , pars =  [-1.60110132  4.27313637  1.25525911  0.88761008]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.0876412987092612
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860620001573386
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4574299178337905
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.013984500976785
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0240140773750628
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0325286182228484
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.900049120800332
f =  21.488777583353148 , pars =  [-1.60127755  4.2739674   1.25571478  0.88684164]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08804297590169902
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860735783112394
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4321752865299358
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0146991890271222
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.025938514579392
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0358071911732558
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9042502281219041
f =  21.9213912978382 , pars =  [-1.6006167   4.27317018  1.25508344  0.88642167]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08818707841013973
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860624714788934
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4469664877040156
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0145880801079468
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0248531769067049
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0338707976465324
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8964049282123139
f =  20.949330891141823 , pars =  [-1.60107621  4.27308472  1.25517954  0.88660279]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08839511503170958
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860612802675178
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4372078777858659
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0142742145566088
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0248088156083122
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.034492810502701
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9003039503589385
f =  21.55626348776107 , pars =  [-1.60104608  4.27342973  1.25520325  0.88664079]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08822093687558422
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860660884723759
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.43679392725038746
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.013970910587848
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0245381828729014
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0343870174888763
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9023578223918396
f =  21.379055637446793 , pars =  [-1.60107451  4.27318655  1.25507628  0.88662155]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08806043972675154
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860626996102155
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.43610618519716543
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.01436338586727
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0254476265857486
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0351955858731225
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9023434661913036
f =  25.099874450183933 , pars =  [-1.60106685  4.27320929  1.2552717   0.88660316]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08721744623735217
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860630165481418
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.452726234470947
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0140233722140155
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.024012824143014
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0328145744498096
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9047576612914516
f =  20.707648853755337 , pars =  [-1.60116787  4.27319072  1.25517622  0.88661271]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08891623850452544
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860627577021144
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.43683226234308553
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0142150911791163
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.024817042642693
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0345821280918097
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8946740669159403
f =  25.56264156525202 , pars =  [-1.60098814  4.2732013   1.2551529   0.88666771]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08715835920744153
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860629051787867
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4643142084310524
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0136841706753088
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0230915591426777
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0313900974447274
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9006106389868991
f =  30.74529760838892 , pars =  [-1.60107085  4.27321276  1.25517336  0.88651966]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08591676707528773
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.98606306488127
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4739409059019563
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0122570886185394
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.021034888200888
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.029056439417273
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9051180146364468
f =  21.255207622094556 , pars =  [-1.60113495  4.27320142  1.25518083  0.8866873 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08832229002227951
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860629068788094
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.43887844548847227
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.014031008324245
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0244863750688027
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.034116293604738
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9001136206196757
f =  24.464908737538096 , pars =  [-1.60106691  4.27328335  1.25517604  0.88662132]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.0873152468121311
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860640486812099
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.45986654303788876
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0141050041081847
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.02420693755918
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.0327478959239251
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.9003184596783513
f =  20.660215900973537 , pars =  [-1.60107734  4.27314933  1.25514905  0.8866194 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.09062949999999999 0.08855497936755168
trans_fromgood 0.9799505901108199 0.9860621808958101
trans_frombad 0.34961556515803577 0.4349711433997022
grad2 1.0820892101034927 1.0140331577796353
grad3 1.082147568412408 1.0246260776689116
grad4 1.1013762404780216 1.034499654786803
tfp 0.8982050373873612 0.8999619948169856
estimation did converge, now computing standard errors...
             value   free        se
name                               
sigma     2.097183  False       NaN
beta      0.970000  False       NaN
phi       0.304140  False       NaN
psi       0.168902  False       NaN
delta_h1 -1.601068   True  0.010378
delta_h2  4.273184   True  0.015053
eta       0.000000  False       NaN
tfp       1.255176   True  0.007569
price     0.887615   True  0.014635
risk      0.000000  False       NaN
